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ANN multivariate analysis of factors that influence human-caused multiple fire starts

≈ 2 mins de leitura

Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes
Cristina Vega-García

Delays in the initial attack of new fire starts can happen locally when two or more fires burn simultaneously. The occurrence of multiple-fire-day situations may pose a real problem if suppression resources are limited, which almost always are. We analyzed multiple-fire-days in Galicia (Spain) from 2002 to 2005 with the goal of predicting these multiple fire situations by using Artificial Neural Networks. We carried out two types of analysis with our seasonally-structured data: to identify the relevant variables in the multiple versus single daily outcome (classification problem) and to predict the number of fires within the multiple-fire-days observations (prediction problem). The accuracy for the best Spring model was around 59-60% which located multiple occurrences in higher altitudes and public forest properties, near roads and recreation areas, with lower temperatures, lower quantity of pastureland and higher FFMC. Best classifications for the Summer period were around 60-61% and associated multiple fires to lower elevation areas, higher proportion of public and communal forests, near roads and higher drought indices. Predictions of actual number of fire occurrences in the Spring period reached 62% accuracy with a similar variables selection as the Spring classification model. Predictions for the Summer period lacked accuracy (44-50%) suggesting more complex patterns, probably due to mixed causes.

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ISBN:
eISBN: 978-989-26-0884-6
DOI: 10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_198
Área: Ciências da Engenharia e Tecnologias
Páginas: 1787-1798
Data: 2014

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The development of forest fire danger mapping method for wildland urban interface in Korea
HoungSek Park;Si-Young Lee;Chun-geun Kwon;Chan-ho Yeom
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_106

The evolution of the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS): future direction after five years of implementation
Erin Noonan-Wright;Tim Sexton;Mitchell Burgard
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_107

The flammability of ornamental species with potential for use in highways and wildland urban interface (WUI) in southern Brazil
Daniela Biondi;Antonio Carlos Batista;Angeline Martini
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_108

The history of a large fire or how a series of events lead to 14000 Hectares burned in 3 days
Luís Mário Ribeiro;Ricardo Oliveira;Domingos X. Viegas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_109

The MODIS: based perpendicular moisture index as a tool for mapping fire hazard: indirect validation in three areas of the Mediterranean
Carmine Maffei;Laura Bonora;Fabio Maselli;Adrien Mangiavillano;Massimo Menenti
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_110

Time series of land surface temperature from daily MODIS measurements for the prediction of fire hazard
Carmine Maffei;Silvia Alfieri;Massimo Menenti
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_111

Waste in non-value-added suppression activities: simulation analysis of the impact of rekindles and false alarms on the forest fire suppression system
Abílio Pereira Pacheco;João Claro;Tiago Oliveira
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_112

Wooden buildings in Wildland-Urban Interface areas: flammability of solid woods used in wood-framed construction in Portugal
Valeria Reva;João Gomes;José J. Costa;A. Rui Figueiredo
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_113

A new calibration for Fire Weather Index in Spain (AEMET)
R. Romero;A. Mestre;R. Botey
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_114

Assessing the association of drought indicators to impacts: the results for areas burned by wildfires in Portugal
Carlo Bifulco;Francisco Rego;Susana Dias;James H. Stagge
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_115

Assessing the effect on fire risk modeling of the uncertainty in the location and cause of forest fires
Marcos Rodrigues;Juan de la Riva
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_116

Assessment and management of cascading effects triggering forest fires
Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal;Miguel Almeida;Christoph Aubrecht;Maria Polese;Luís Mário Ribeiro;Domingos Viegas;Giulio Zuccaro
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_117

Assessment of risk index for urban vegetation fires of Juiz de Fora, MG, Brazil
Fillipe Tamiozzo Pereira Torres;Guido Assunção Ribeiro;Sebastião Venâncio Martins;Gumercindo Souza Lima
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_118

Characterizing pyroregions in south-eastern France
Thomas Curt;Thibaut Fréjaville;Christophe Bouillon
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_119

Daily maps of fire risk over Mediterranean Europe based on information from MSG satellite imagery
Carlos C. DaCamara;Teresa J. Calado;Sofia L. Ermida;Isabel F. Trigo;Malik Amraouia;Kamil F. Turkman
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_120

Evaluation of a system for automatic dead fine fuel moisture measurements
Christian Schunk;Michael Leuchner;Annette Menzel
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_121

Expanding the horizons of wildfire risk management
Matthew P. Thompson;Joe Scott;Julie W Gilbertson-Day;Jessica R Haas;David E. Calkin
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_122

Fine forest fuels moisture content monitoring in Central Portugal: a long term experiment
Sérgio Lopes;Domingos Xavier Viegas;Luís de Lemos;Maria Teresa Viegas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_123

Fire and deforestation processes represented in vegetation models for the Brazilian Amazonia
Manoel Cardoso;Gilvan Sampaio;Vinicius Capistrano;Marcos Sanches
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_124

FireDST: a simulation system for short-term ensemble modelling of bushfire spread and exposure
Ian A. French;Thomas J. Duff;Robert (Bob) P. Cechet;Kevin G. Tolhurst;Jeff D. Kepert;Mick Meyer
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_125

Fuel types identification for forest fire risk assessment in Bulgaria
E. Velizarova;T. Stankova;M. Glushkova;G. Xanthopoulos;Vl. Konstantinov;D. N. Dimitrov
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_126

Global assessment of fire risk: using a global fuel map and climatological data to estimate fire behavior with FCCS
M. Lucrecia Pettinari;Emilio Chuvieco
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_127

Haines Index and the forest fires in the Adriatic region of Croatia
Tomislav Kozaric;Marija Mokoric
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_128

Impacts of climate change on forest fire risk in Paraná State-Brazil
Antonio Carlos Batista;Alexandre França Tetto;Flavio Deppe;Leocádio Grodzki
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_129

Impacts of climate change on the fire regime in Portugal
Carlos C. DaCamara;Mário G. Pereira;Teresa J. Calado;Tomás Calheiros
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_130

Investigation of the weather conditions leading to large forest fires in the area around Athens, Greece
G. Xanthopoulos;A. Roussos;C. Giannakopoulos;A. Karali;M. Hatzaki
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_131

Modeling fire behaviour and carbon emissions
William J. de Groot;Alan S. Cantin;Natasha Jurko;Alison Newbery
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_132

New method of forecasting forest fire risk in Poland
Miroslaw Kwiatkowski;Ryszard Szczygiel;Bartlomiej Kolakowski
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_133

Potential impact of climate change on live fuel moisture dynamic at local scale
Grazia Pellizzaro;Martin Dubrovsky;Sara Bortolu;Bachisio Arca;Andrea Ventura;Pierpaolo Duce
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_134

Predicting wildfire ignitions, escapes, and large fire activity using Predictive Service’s 7-Day Fire Potential Outlook in the western USA
Karin L. Riley;Crystal Stonesifer;Preisler Preisler;Dave Calkin
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_135

Pyroclimatic classification of Mediterranean and mountain landscapes of south-eastern France
Thibaut Fréjaville;Thomas Curt
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_136

Rainfall effects on fine forest fuels moisture content
Sérgio Lopes;Domingos Xavier Viegas;Luís de Lemos;Maria Teresa Viegas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_137

Statistical evaluation of site-specific wildfire risk index calculation for Adriatic regions
Marin Bugarić;Darko Stipaničev;Ljiljana Šerić
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_138

The development of a web-application for improved wildfire risk management in Lebanon
George Mitri;Mireille Jazi;Edward Antoun;David McWethy;Rabih Kahaleh;Manal Nader
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_139

The weather circulation analysis over Adriatic region of Croatia in warm period 1981-2013
Marija Mokorić;Lovro Kalin
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_140

Understanding risk: representing fire danger using spatially explicit fire simulation ensembles
Thomas J. Duff;Derek M. Chong;Brett A. Cirulis;Sean F. Walsh;Trent D. Penman;Kevin G. Tolhust
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_141

Use of weather generators for assessing local scale impact of climate change on dead fuel moisture
Grazia Pellizzaro;Martin Dubrovsky;Sara Bortolu;Bachisio Arca;Andrea Ventura;Pierpaolo Duce
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_142

A Landsat-TM/OLI algorithm for burned areas in the Brazilian Cerrado: preliminary results
Arturo E. Melchiori;Alberto W. Setzer;Fabiano Morelli;Renata Libonati;Pietro de Almeida Cândido;Silvia C. de Jesús
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_143

A wearable system for firefighters smoke exposure monitoring
P. Azevedo;F. Marques;J.M. Fernandes;J.H. Amorim;J. Valente;A.I. Miranda;C. Borrego;J.P.S. Cunha
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_144

Analysis of the effectiveness of fire detection systems in different dimensions
Agoston Restas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_145

Analysis of the thermophysiological response to cooling techniques in firefighters
R. Marcelo Abreu;António M. Raimundo;Divo A. Quintela
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_146

Consideration of an empirical model for wildland firefighter safety zones
B Butler
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_147

Determining a safety condition in the prevention of eruptive fires
Chatelon F.J.;Balbi J.H.;Rossi J.L.;Simeoni A.;Viegas D.X.;Marcelli T.
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_148

Development and application of wildfire suppression expenditure models for decision support and landscape planning
Michael S. Hand;Matthew P. Thompson;David E. Calkin
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_149

Evaluating wildfire simulators using historical fire data
George J Milne;Joel K Kelso;Drew Mellor;Mary E Murphy
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_150

Fire detection with a frame-less vision sensor working in the NIR band
Juan A. Leñero-Bardallo;Jorge Fernández-Berni;Ricardo Carmona-Galán;Philipp Häfliger;Ángel Rodríguez-Vázquez
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_151

Fire safety management based on integrated monitoring and forecast of smoke exposure
J.H. Amorim;A.I. Miranda;J. Valente;F. Marques;C. Borrego;J.M. Fernandes;R. Ottmar;S.J. Prichard;A. Andreu;P.M. Fernandes;J.P.S. Cunha
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_152

Forest fire detection wireless sensor node
George E. Sakr;Rafik Ajour;Areej Khaddaj;Bahaa Saab;Alaa Salman;Ola Helal;Imad H. Elhajj;George Mitri
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_153

Generation of simulated ignitions for the continental United States
Isaac C. Grenfell;Mark A. Finney;Dianne Trethewey
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_154

Hose laying rates for forest firefighting in Greece
Gavriil Xanthopoulos;Ioannis Kousaridas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_155

Instant foam technology to improve aerial firefighting effectiveness
Agoston Restas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_156

Mobile application based on a physical model to calculate Acceptable Safety Distance
Paul-Antoine Bisgambiglia;Romain Franceschini;François-Joseph Chatelon;Jean-Louis Rossi;Paul Antoine Bisgambiglia
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_157

Monitoring forest fires and burnings with weather radar
Ernandes A. Saraiva;Ronaldo Viana Soares;Antônio Carlos Batista;Horácio Tertuliano;Ana Maria Gomes
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_158

Monitoring the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere in Portugal due to forest fires, in the summer of 2013
Lourdes Bugalho;Luís Pessanha;L. M. Ribeiro;M. Almeida;Ricardo Oliveira;D. X. Viegas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_159

New generation of automatic ground based wildfire surveillance systems
Darko Stipaničev;Marin Bugarić;Damir Krstinić;Ljiljana Šerić;Toni Jakovčević;Maja Braović;Maja Štula
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_160

NITROFIREX: existing technologies and nighttime aerial firefighting solutions
Luis M. Bordallo;Alexander Burwitz
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_161

Radiative properties of firefighters’ protective clothing worn during forest fire operations
Alexis Marchand;Anthony Collin;Pascal Boulet;Zoubir Acem;Françis Magnolini;Hervé Charette;Marc Lepelletie;Yann Van Waelfelghem
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_162

Results of the R-20F Method for Measuring the Water Equivalence of the Isolation Effect of Foams Used in Fighting Forest Fires
Agoston Restas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_163

Safety at the WUI: a firefighters view
Clara Quesada-Fernández;Daniel Quesada-Fernández
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_164

Safety zones and convective heat: numerical simulation of potential burn injury from heat sources influenced by slopes and winds
Russell A. Parsons;Bret. W. Butler;William “Ruddy” Mell
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_165

Sensor grid for fine particles monitoring during a fire: implications to firefighter’s safety
J.H. Amorim;A.I. Miranda;J. Valente;P. Cascão;V. Martins;L.M. Ribeiro;D.X. Viegas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_166

Sources and implications of bias and uncertainty in a century of us wildfire activity data
Karen C Short
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_167

Suppression capability of foams used fighting against forest fires with the test of weight rate remained on the crown surface R-10A Method: weight effectiveness experiment
Agoston Restas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_168

SWeFS: sensor Web Fire Shield for forest fire detection and monitoring
George Bismpikis;Vassilis Papataxiarhis;Nikos Bogdos;Elias S. Manolakos;Stathes Hadjiefthymiades
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_169

The effectiveness of suppression resources in large fire management in the US: a review
David Calkin;Hari Katuwahl;Michael Hand;Tom Holmes
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_170

The ODS3F project: evaluating and comparing the performances of the ground optical and thermal fire monitoring systems.
G. Laneve;Roberto De Bonis;Pablo Marzialetti;Yiannis Bakouros;Paraskevi Giourka;Riccardo Castellini;Remi Savazzi;Maria Rosa Grisolia
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_171

Thematic division and tactical analysis of the UAS application supporting forest fire management
Agoston Restas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_172

Towards an ultra-low-power low-cost wireless visual sensor node for fine-grain detection of forest fires
J. Fernández-Berni;R. Carmona-Galán;Juan A. Leñero-Bardallo;R. Kleihorst;Á. Rodríguez-Vázquez
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_173

Tropical forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon: relation to fire and land-use change
Ana Cano-Crespo;Paulo J. C. Oliveira;Manoel Cardoso;Kirsten Thonicke
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_174

Wettability and extinguishing power of different wetting composition for wildland fire fighting
Joanna Rakowska;Bożenna Porycka;Katarzyna Radwan;Ryszard Szczygieł;Mirosław Kwiatkowski
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_175

A fire effects index for overall assessment of wildfire events in Greece
Kostas Kalabokidis;Palaiologos Palaiologou;Nikolaos Athanasis
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_176

Accuracy assessment of a mediterranean fuel-type map for wildland fire management at national scale: the cases of greece and portugal
Ioannis D. Mitsopoulos;Luis .M. Ribeiro;G. Eftychidis;D.X. Viegas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_177

Addressing trade-offs among fuel management scenarios through a dynamic and spatial integrated approach for enhanced decision-making in eucalyptus forest
Brigite Botequim;Alan Ager;Abílio P. Pacheco;Tiago Oliveira;Joao Claro;Paulo M. Fernandes;José G. Borges
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_178

Analysis of burnt areas and number of forest fires in the Iberian Peninsula
Marta M. Mato;José Luis Legido;Eva Miguez;Vicente Caselles;Eulogio Jiménez;Tarsy Carballas;Maria I. Paz Andrade
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_179

Anticipating the severity of the fire season in Northern Portugal using statistical models based on meteorological indices of fire danger
Sílvia A. Nunes;Carlos C. DaCamara;Kamil F. Turkman;Sofia L. Ermida;Teresa J. Calado
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_180

Application of simulation modeling for wildfire risk assessment and management
Michele Salis;Alan A. Ager;Mark A. Finney;Fermin Alcasena Urdiroz;Bachisio Arca;Olga Muñoz Lozano;Paul Santoni;Donatella Spano
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_181

Ash deposition during wildfire and its threat to water quality
Cristina Santín;Stefan H. Doerr;Chris J. Chafer
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_182

Assigning dates to burned areas in Portugal based on NIR and the reflected component of MIR as derived from MODIS
Jéssica Panisset;Renata Libonati;Carlos C. DaCamara;Ana Barros
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_183

Characterizing the secondary peak of Iberian fires in March
Carlos C. DaCamara;Ricardo M. Trigo;Manuel L. Nascimento
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_184

Experimental research of penetration hearth of burning in the peat layer
M. Grishin;V.P. Zima;D. P. Kasymov
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_185

Forest fire risk related to the railway transport and evaluation of the effectiveness of firebreaks
Ryszard Szczygiel;Miroslaw Kwiatkowski;Bartlomiej Kolakowski;Józef Piwnicki
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_186

Forest fire severity in NW Spain: a case of study
J.M. Fernández-Alonso;J.A. Vega Hidalgo;E. Jiménez Carmona
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_187

Implementation of different techniques for controlling post-fire erosion in the N.W. of the Iberian Peninsula
M. Díaz-Raviña;A. Martín;A. Barreiro;A. Lombao;J.A. Vega;M.T. Fontúrbel;C. Fernández;T. Carballas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_188

LIFE ArcFUEL: Mediterranean fuel-type maps geodatabase for wildland & forest fire safety
M. Bonazountas;A. Astyakopoulos;G. Martirano;A Sebastian;D. De la Fuente;L.M. Ribeiro;D.X. Viegas;G. Eftychidis;I. Gitas;P. Toukiloglou
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_189

Monitoring erosion risk with ERMIT model: a case study in North Sardinia, Italy
Romina Secci;Annalisa Canu;Andrea Motroni;Andrea Ventura;Gabriele Uras
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_190

Multitemporal analysis of burned areas of the Selva El Ocote Biosphere Reserve, Mexico, using satellite data
Lilia Manzo-Delgado;Aide Franco-Martínez;Gloria León-Rojas
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_191

Post fire erosion control mulch effects on soil organic matter turnover
Erin Berryman;Deborah Page-Dumroese;Martin Jurgensen;Peter Robichaud
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_192

Spatio-temporal monitoring of burned area to evaluate post-fire damage: application on Fontanès wildfire (France)
Marlène Long-Fournel;Gabrielle Mattei;Denis Morge;Johan Blanpied;Roland Estève;Fabien Guerra;Christian Ripert;Marielle Jappiot
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_193

The Greek National Observatory of forest fires
Ioannis Gitas;George Zalidis;George Eftychidis
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_194

Trends and changes of fire danger in Italy and its relationships with fire activity (1985-2008)
Valentina Bacciu;Francesco Masala;Donatella Spano;Costantino Sirca
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_195

Validation of burn scar mapping: Pilot case in Peloponnesus, Greece
G. Eftychidis;G. Leventakis;B. Hirn;F. Ferrucci;G. Laneve
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_196

Validation of the burned area “(V,W)” Modis algorithm in Brazil
Renata Libonati;Carlos C. DaCamara;Alberto W. Setzer;Fabiano Morelli;Silvia C. de Jesus;Pietro A. Candido;Arturo E. Melchiori
https://doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-0884-6_197